Ya, I have been looking at the polls. I was at a pro coalition rally in Van earlier today, and I though it went well, and I know these polls are a few days old but still. They scare me.
They basically show large polarization of Quebec vs the rest of the country (though Atlantic Canada stands out too, as always). It also shows that the Conservatives at about 45% support (was 37.65%), the Liberals at 24% (was 26.26%), the NDP at about 14% (was 18.18%), the Bloc at about 9% (was 9.98%) or about 37-41% in Quebec (was 38.1%), the Greens at 8% (was 6.78%, but they always poll higher then they ever turn out; I, like many believe this is cause non-voters tend to support the greens). Basically, some Liberals, and even more NDP have decided that the Conservatives are a better choice, while all other parties are about the same. Other fun facts: Most Canadians supported the halt to Parliament, Quebecois dislike and blame the Harper Conservatives more then anyone else, though Canada as a whole was fairly split on who to blame. Crucially, only a low percentage of Canadians (~35%) support the coalition, which in English Canada is sadly at lest partially do to the Bloc support (which I think is silly, as working with the Bloc was doing more for unity then what Harper is doing).
That said, many of the problems (as I fell was also true in the last election) were due to the leaders. No matter how you slice it, more then half of Canadians do not want/trust Dion, and don't seem to like Layton much better. That said, even though support seems to be for keeping the Conservatives, 55% of the country think we are on the wrong track, and 47% of Canadians do not trust Harper. If only there were another choice...
The one thing I really do not understand is that 47% of Canadians seem to think the Conservatives are the best choice for the economic crisis. After that budget update? I can't understand that one at all. I'll admit to thinking Dion isn't a very good choice (despite thinking him a great guy), but after that budget update, he really can't do worse than Harper, can he?
Oh well, if things stay like this (which I'm sure they won't, but they will have to really move to change things I suppose) then the opposition would be stupid to bring down the government. Further, more Canadians (56%) would prefer an election to the coalition (bad sign), only 16% actually wanted an election.
So, summary: The opposition, though what they did is in fact legal, democratic, and pretty much necessary under the Westminster style parliamentary system, Canadians do not like what is happening. They overplayed there hand. I suspect it was that they moved too quick and too arrogantly. It would have been better if they had signed their coalition (maybe more as a letter of understanding), and had a letter of support from the Bloc, all basically saying we are not afraid to topple the government, and we will offer to form a coalition in that event, UNLESS you make certain concessions.
The result? Well, assuming no change, the opposition parties are basically unable to vote against the government. This means that Harper will have a de facto majority (like last time, only he will get more ballsy and thus more mean, divisive and destructive. Sadly, he probably won't even be happy with that, he will probably break his own law about election dates AGAIN, and just ask for another go. The one upside to that, is Canadians might get pissed at him for it. However, he could provoke yet another election with Dion and Layton as his opposition, and they likely wouldn't run as a coalition (which might be there only hope in that regard, as they may not be able to recoup their losses) .
Summary: Unless things change, we will have a Harper Conservative majority government. If the economic update is a sign that means no help for anybody, and a quiet dismantling of the rights and assets of Canadians.
If that disquiets you, as it does me, then there are a bunch of things you can do. If you are conservative, campaign for a new leader of the party. Harper does not seem to want to cooperate, and his policies aren't in keeping with those of fiscal conservatives (like myself). If you are not a conservative, get out there and talk to people. Come up with something to get people on board with the coalition, or at least back into the Liberal/NDP fold. Youtube videos? Signs? Protests? Call in shows? Something. I think if more people realized what was going on, things would be at least a little different. While the coalition really doesn't appeal to me (sorry, but I'm not a fan of the NDP personally) I would prefer 1.5 years of stability, with likely good fiscal management, and the separatists under that agreement they made to behave, to a Harper majority (de facto or otherwise).
In the end, I suppose, I'd pick "None of the above".
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Allan, the election law only applies to majority governments, so he wouldn't break it if he were to call an election.
Second, a stimulus package isn't what Canada needs. We simply need to beef up the EI social programs and let them do what they were designed to do. Then we need to lower taxes a little to give the businesses a break, offer tax incentives to move industries in certain directions (green for instance) and then you're done. No need for a multi-billion dollar stimulus package that isn't needed.
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