So long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, adieu

Since I have an exam tomorrow, just a quick post to share the happy news that Dion is likely on his way out. Three indicators:

1. Rae and Ignatieff agree that the Liberal party needs a new leader by the time Parliament restarts. Unsurprisingly they can't agree on who this leader should be, but by adopting pretty clearly opposing views of the coalition, they offer substantially different views of where the party should head - towards a coalition (which would be a terrible idea) or towards fighting the Conservatives head-on for better economic stimulus and gearing up for an election (which makes a whole lot more sense at this point.)


2. LeBlanc is backing out of the leadership race. I'm not sure how much difference this makes, because he had about as high a profile in the media as... well, actually, Dion before he was chosen as leader. Perhaps it is a good thing that LeBlanc is backing out then. Anyway, he's likely supporting Ignatieff.
   


3. A new Angus-Reid poll presents a clear alternative between Dion, Rae, and Ignatieff as Liberal leaders in the next election. Per the poll, the Liberals would trail the Conservatives by 42-22 under Dion (holy shit that is low), 41-26 under Rae, and 38-33 under Ignatieff. In the latter case, the Liberals would see the biggest gains in BC, Ontario, and Quebec, which is significant as these are probably the three regions where the Liberals have the best chance of picking up seats (as the Prairies look pretty solidly Conservative and the Maritimes offer few seats that aren't already safely red or entirely blue).

Let's take a moment to see what a huge difference the leadership change could make at this point. I don't want to make too big of a deal of one poll, but seriously, look at this:



One of these parties has a future. The others... do not. Either people really respect Ignatieff's leadership a lot more than Dion's or Rae's, or Canada is tired of the paralysis brought on by Harper and the coalition and are eager to see a leader who isn't associated with either.

CBC offers a decent summary of the Liberal leadership race. It talks of Dion resigning Wednesday - only a week after he and Harper seized control of the airwaves. When did Canadian politics get so busy? Even American media is starting to notice.

At this point, it's looking like Captain Coalition is suffering as the coalition tanks. While I'm still not wholly won over by Ignatieff, it's really reassuring to see the Grits backing away from the coalition a little and reassessing their prospects and priorities - and when Ignatieff is talking about the chances for the Conservatives to be toppled (as opposed to making it sound inevitable) that's a good sign that the Liberals are putting Canada's and the Liberals' futures ahead of Dion's, the Bloc's and the NDP's.