Ignatieff is massively popular. A new poll out of the Toronto Star has Ignatieff leading Harper as the top choice of Prime Minister 28% to 27% - this is obviously within the margin of error, but considering how dismal the Liberal approval ratings have been lately, it is a really impressive turnaround. The same poll also gave the following voter preferences:
In particular, Ignatieff is being received really positively in BC and Quebec, two regions in which the Liberals did dismally in October. It would appear that the party has finally realized that they need a popular leader to win elections - which doesn't sound like an impressive intellectual leap, but it is encouraging that they've finally made that connection.Ignatieff provides an opportunity for the Liberal Party to move away from the coalition. I have been pretty skeptical of the notion of a coalition since it was announced, not least because it seemed like the Liberals felt unable to negotiate with the Harper government on their own terms, without Bloc and NDP backing. The notion of a coalition, as previously discussed, has tanked dismally in the polls, because it really does come off as irresponsible and subversive.
Ignatieff's sensible approach to discussing the budget directly with the Conservatives, calling for credible surplus estimates, and challenging Flaherty to propose a stimulus package without waiting to see what the Liberals are suggesting is way more statesmanlike and Prime Ministerial than flashy schemes to bring down the government with NDP backing. Layton must be pretty nervous when Ignatieff is reticent to bring down the government on a budget no one has seen yet, because the coalition clearly had more to offer to the NDP than the Liberals in the first place.
Ignatieff's selection shows that the Liberals are ready to fight an election. When the party's poll numbers were dismal, it was pretty difficult to credibly oppose the government in any way that could force an election, since as of last week the Conservatives would have coasted to a majority. Now that the Liberals have a popular leader in place - rather than an unpopular interim leader with less than six months to go - they could reasonably fight an election, and don't need to be afraid of appeasing the Conservatives until May anymore.
Spring election maybe?
1 comment:
One good poll result with an accompanying pretty graph does not election preparedness make. This would be an amazing opportunity for Harper to totally sideswipe the progressive electors.
Planning -- the ability to present a credible alternate view that Canadians can support -- is a vital step before any election. Putting forward some good ideas and a comprehensive strategy to improve Canadians position in the world is needed.
Ignatief has to take this window where he has the support over the country to start getting people onside for the ideas the party needs.
Again a cohesive message being sold to all the members of the caucus is the next step. And not enforcing party discipline like Harper does with baldface imtimidation but actually having support for ideas because they've been developed as a group. Then and only then is there time to think about an election.
Kevin
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