Under the new rules, with 33 new seats for BC (7 new seats), Alberta (5 new seats), and Ontario (21 new seats), the ratio of seats will change appreciably. The outer ring represents the current rules, and the inner ring the new one:
At first glance, it would seem that increases in seats for overwhelmingly-Conservative BC and Alberta would help the Conservatives in the next election. However, it's probably worth a closer look at some of the specific effects that could arise here:- The seats are going to be created in areas of BC, Alberta, and Ontario with high population growth. In particular, Vancouver and Surrey in BC, Calgary and Edmonton in Alberta, and Missasauga, Brampton, other parts of the Toronto suburbs, and Kitchener in Ontario are likely to see new seats. In Alberta, these are very likely to be strongly Conservative, but in Ontario and BC the new seats will come in regions which are currently largely Liberal, with some NDP and Conservative MPs. Given the closeness of several results in these areas (Kitchener-Waterloo, Brampton West, and Vancouver South were all decided by margins of less than 0.5% in the most recent election, and Vancouver-Quadra saw a similarly close by-election in the spring), new boundaries could have significant impacts in existing ridings.
- The change in Liberal leadership may help Liberal prospects, especially in Ontario - 51% of Ontario voters approved of the switch to Ignatieff. Lots of new seats in Ontario could represent an opportunity for Liberal pickups. It seems the Conservatives were initially reluctant to give Ontario so many more seats, as this original proposal from last May shows. (For what it's worth, Ignatieff enjoys a 46% approval in BC in the same poll, and 41% in Alberta.)
- The new House of Commons will see reduced electoral opportunities for the Bloc Quebecois. Since the Bloc only runs candidates in Quebec (obviously), a smaller proportion of seats for the province means a lower maximum on the number of seats the party can hold. The large number of new seats outside possible Bloc territory could increase the possibility of a majority government - or, at least, a coalition arrangement that did not (formally or otherwise) include the Bloc or depend on Bloc support.
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