Close races (part 1 of 3)

For the next few posts, I'm planning to consider the close races from last elections - the battleground ridings which are realistically most likely to change hands in the next election (barring a major game-changer). Specifically, I'll be looking at ridings within the following arbitrary margins of victory:

• A 10 percent margin (of which there were 78)
• A 5 percent margin (of which there were 41)
• A 1 percent margin (of which there were 12)

Out of 308 ridings, this is quite a few with a close margin, which says something reassuring about the state of Canadian democracy. I'll be discussing the three categories separately, since the relevant effects and strategies are very different in these three cases.

Today, the ten-percenters. These are the ridings where a substantial shift in public opinion (which may be coming; I'm optimistic) or concerted local efforts could conceivably shift the vote. A whole lot of ridings fall into this category, in the following sort of distribution:
As would be expected, most of the close races are in Quebec and Ontario, with the Conservative-dominated Prairies and much of BC essentially noncompetitive. The smaller parties see most of their seats in competitive ridings - almost a quarter of Bloc seats and over 40% of NDP seats fall into this category.

It's also worth noting who's coming in a close second in these seats. (Note that the totals here don't add up to the ones above as some ridings had close three-way races.)
As shown, the Liberals saw the most close losses in the election - especially in Ontario and Quebec. The Conservatives, on the other hand, have a particularly strong opportunity in BC, where they came within ten percent of victory in nine of the the fourteen seats they do not already control.

With so many tight races, there is serious potential for lots of seats to change hands in the next election. What can the Liberals and Conservatives be doing to swing some of these tight races and maximize their chances of forming the next government?

The Conservatives should focus their attention on the big urban areas around Toronto and Vancouver, as they stand a high chance of picking up seats in these areas. Appointing all those Conservative party activists to the Senate probably did not help the party's chances in these regions, and nor does the party's gag policy on is candidates. Big cities are media-heavy, and the Conservative Party does a poor job of equipping its candidates to face the media.

The Liberals' efforts would be best focused in Quebec outside Montreal, and in southwestern Ontario, where they lost several very close races to the Bloc and the Conservatives, respectively. In addition to a leader fluent in English and less concessions and assistance to the Green Party, the party should be seeking to address the economy. Bailouts for the auto and forestry sectors - as the party has been seeking since Dion's adorable YouTube video- will play well in these areas as the economy tanks.