And we're back.

After an unannounced and unjustified hiatus of around four and a half months, we're back. It won't happen again, we promise. Look for more frequent updates in this space starting now.

The front page of the Globe and Mail features our favourite Vulcan/Russian/American count (pictured to the left) flanked by two doughy Conservatives, all angry, all announcing their total willingness to go to the polls over EI reform, deficits, and slow spending of bailout money.

Even with all the shouting, though, it's pretty clear that there won't be an election anytime soon, even if the Liberals do present a confidence vote at their next opposition day. They would need the support of both the Bloc and the NDP to do so, and it's pretty clear that the NDP is not ready to fight an election right now.

The NDP have lost a couple points in polls as the recession deepens, and the rise in popularity of the Liberal Party under Ignatieff has squeezed the NDP in many of the 36 ridings they currently hold. At the last election, the NDP won by less than 10% in over a third of these ridings, with both Liberals and Conservatives coming in close seconds (as shown to the right). A couple points' fall in popularity could push the party down to 23 seats or so, and it's never optimal to go into an election on the defensive.

Even worse, a lot of these tight ridings are in expensive media markets like Vancouver and Toronto, and the NDP can't necessarily afford to compete right now. During the BC election, the federal NDP took flack for their attempts to undercut the provincial party with their fundraising, and in the first quarter of 2009, the party had one of their three worst fundraising quarters since the start of 2005.

In these circumstances, it's not surprising that the NDP haven't started candidate nominations, and that at least one NDP MP has stated that the party isn't interested in elections until 2010. However, there are a couple key tests before the Liberals' opposition day (if it ever comes) which could convince the NDP that an election might actually be worth it:

1. The provincial election in Nova Scotia, on 9 June. Polling is sparse, but currently it seems the NDP are ahead (maybe well ahead) of the Liberals and Conservatives. An NDP majority government in Nova Scotia would be a huge morale boost, and would show that the NDP can compete in the recession.
2. Possible federal by-elections in New Westminster-Coquitlam (in Vancouver suburbia) and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley (northeast of Halifax). The former was formerly NDP territory, and the latter until recently had a hugely popular independent MP. No date has been set yet, but NDP wins would be a big ego boost and could likely put the party in election mode.
   

Even if the NDP is ready and willing for an election (and the Liberals and Conservatives don't back down), the Bloc would still be needed to take down the government. I'll discuss their election readiness later.